Quotes by George Friedman

George Friedman

A century is about events. A decade is about people.

Century

Events

People

A research division develops marketing material for its deal makers. We have no policy position. If you have a policy position you can’t possibly forecast.

Division

Marketing

Research

Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.

Doe

Reality

Technology

Assad’s mother was a terror. He was terrified of her and she kept saying to him, you’re not like your father. That’s interesting, but it’s useless information. It doesn’t tell me anything about how the first and second armored brigades are going to operate.

Father

Interesting

Mother

Because the US has control of the sea. Because the US has built up its wealth. Because the US is the only country in the world really not to have a war fought on its territory since the time of the Civil War … Therefore we can afford mistakes that would kill other countries. And therefore we can take risks that they can’t … the core answer to why the United States is like this is we didn’t fight World War I and World War II and the Cold War here.

Country

Mistake

War

But every time new powers emerge they have to find their balance. New powers are emerging, old powers are declining. It’s not that process that’s dangerous, it’s the emerging position that’s dangerous.

Balance

Dangerous

Process

By the 20th century, war ceased to be an encounter between two armies. It became an encounter between two societies, because a factory worker producing a gun or a bomb is as deadly as a pilot.

Army

Gun

War

Constraint theory argues a number of things. First, that the impossible has to be identified. Second, that the actor is then constrained by circumstances to act a certain way. For example, should we invade ISIS? Can we invade ISIS? What would it take to invade ISIS? Once you ask that question you discover the price of that option and then you take a look at American politics and see that the country is probably not prepared to invest the 2 to 3 million people that it would take to defeat ISIS and the insurgency afterwards. All right, so that’s not going to happen.

Country

Isis

Numbers

Constraint theory asks: What is the price for doing this? Now one way around constraint theory is declaring your enemy crazy. Crazy and stupid are not concepts used in forecasting. When people say they’re really stupid or they’re crazy, that’s laziness. That means I don’t want to think through their position or about what they’re really going to do.

Crazy

Mean

Stupid

Constraint theory defines for you what outcomes are possible and what outcomes are impossible. It also eliminates wishful thinking.

Impossible

Outcomes

Thinking

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Adventure

America

Apples

Army

Art

Availability

Balance

Battle

Believe

Blow

Borders

Cards

Cases

Century

Challenges

Chinese

Circumstances

Cities

Civil War

Clouds

Community

Country

Cowboy

Crazy

Culture

Dangerous

Data

Debt

Decision

Distance

Division

Doe

Down And

Elements

Europe

Events

Evil

Example

Faces

Fall

Fancy

Father

Feelings

Fields

Firsts

Foundation

Fun

Fundamentals

Geopolitical

Germany

The Future Blueprint

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The Home Therapist: Anti Anxiety

Tool

The Autobiography

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The Behaviour Diary

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The Dating Diary

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The Relationship Therapist

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Quotes by George Friedman

George Friedman

A century is about events. A decade is about people.

A research division develops marketing material for its deal makers. We have no policy position. If you have a policy position you can’t possibly forecast.

Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.

Assad’s mother was a terror. He was terrified of her and she kept saying to him, you’re not like your father. That’s interesting, but it’s useless information. It doesn’t tell me anything about how the first and second armored brigades are going to operate.

But every time new powers emerge they have to find their balance. New powers are emerging, old powers are declining. It’s not that process that’s dangerous, it’s the emerging position that’s dangerous.

By the 20th century, war ceased to be an encounter between two armies. It became an encounter between two societies, because a factory worker producing a gun or a bomb is as deadly as a pilot.

Constraint theory defines for you what outcomes are possible and what outcomes are impossible. It also eliminates wishful thinking.

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The Home Therapist: Anti Anxiety

The Autobiography

The Behaviour Diary

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